Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)

Description of Intervention

An important activity of the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP), which was a GEF-funded enabling activity, was the development of integrated assessment models to support both Vulnerability and Adaptation (VandA) assessments and capacity building in Pacific island states.

The unique aspect of this work was the linking, through interdisciplinary collaboration, of climate change data, models, and projections with sets of sectoral impact models at the island scale, for both temporal and spatial analyses. Under PICCAP, there were two such modelling developments.

The first was VANDACLIM–The Islands Version (for a fictitious country), a software tool in support of training in VandA assessment. The generic developments for VANDACLIM fuelled the development of a set of prototype integrated assessment models for real places in the Pacific, like Rarotonga (Cook Islands), Viti Levu (Fiji) and Tawara (Kiribati). These “first-order” models contain a climate change scenario generator, island-specific climate data, and a mix of agricultural, coastal, water and health models for impact analyses. The models are designed to be user-friendly, run on a PC and can be easily updated. In effect, these models serve as evolving platforms for integrating scientific knowledge and data for purposes of supporting policy and planning in the context of climate change and variability–a bridge between science and decision-making.

Secondly, recent advances in integrated assessment methods, including those for coastal impacts, adaptation analysis, and economic evaluation were made as part of a recent World Bank supported VandA study focusing on Fiji and Kiribati, for inclusion in the Bank’s Regional Economic Report (RER) for the region.

This study coordinated by the International Global Change Institute (IGCI), provided support for further development of the existing integrated models, especially for Fiji.

Problems to be Addressed

Enhance the knowledge base and the technical and human capacity of the PICs for assessing impacts and adaptation to climate change, including the variability and extremes.

Aims

To enhance the technical and human capacity of the Pacific Island countries to assess vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, including variability

Objectives

• To develop the “next generation” of integrated assessment methods and models, for application at island and sub-island scales;
• To expand the understanding and knowledge concerning impacts and adaptation to climate change in the Pacific by implementing, testing and applying the improved methods in case studies representing low atoll and high volcanic island situations; and
• To build in-country research capacity through training in, and transfer of, the advanced methods and integrated assessment models.

How it fits into the EbA concept

The impact of climatic and natural disasters in terms of human and economic losses has risen in recent years, and society in general has become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Those usually most affected by natural, other disasters are the poor and socially disadvantaged groups in the PICs, as they are least equipped to cope with them.

Disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and relief are the four key elements, which contribute to and should gain from the implementation of sustainable development policies in PICs. In addition, environmental protection as a component of sustainable development consistent with poverty alleviation is imperative in the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters.

Some patterns of consumption, production, and development have the potential for increasing the vulnerability to natural disasters, particularly of the poor and socially disadvantaged groups. However, sustainable development can contribute to reduction of this vulnerability, if planned and managed in a way to ameliorate the social and economic conditions of the affected groups and communities.

Thus, these elements, along with environmental protection and sustainable development, are closely interrelated. Therefore, Small Island Nations need to incorporate them in their development plans both at the community and national levels.

Relevant Publications

Kanayathu K., 2007: Modeling Climate Change Impacts of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Aitutaki (Cook Islands). Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD), University of South Pacific, Suva, Fiji. Published by The International START Secretariat, Washington DC, USA : http://www.aiaccproject.org/Final%20Reports/Final%20Reports/FinalRept_AIACC_SIS09.pdf