Publication

This research studied the impact of climate change on hydrological condition and rain-fed agriculture in Southeast Asia with focus on the lower Mekong River basin as well as assessed vulnerability and adaptation of rain-fed farmers to climate change impact. In this study, future climate scenarios were developed using a climate model with the given condition of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration from the baseline of 360ppm to 540ppm and 720ppm (in other words, 1.5 and 2 times the baseline). The results of the simulation suggest that average temperature in the region tends to be slightly cooler under climatic condition at CO2 concentration of 540ppm but will be slightly warmer than the baseline condition under climate condition at CO2 concentration of 720ppm. The range of temperature change is 1-2ºC. These changes in climate pattern will result in higher discharge of most of the Mekong River tributaries, which is higher in proportion to the increase in precipitation. Agriculture sector, especially rain-fed systems will also be affected by the change in climate pattern. The result from simulation using crop modeling technique shows that yield of rice productivity in the study site in Thailand will increase by 3-6%; but on the contrary, may reduce by almost 10% in the study site in Lao PDR. Rice production in the Mekong River delta in Viet Nam tends to be severely impacted by climate change, especially summer-autumn crop production, of which the yield may reduce by over 40%. The assessment shows that vulnerability to climate change impact of farmers in the lower Mekong River region varies from place to place, according to the degree of climate impact as well as socio-economical and physical conditions in each location.