Business risk assessment and the management of climate change impacts in the Philippines
We have attempted to look thirty years into the future. This study zeroes in on four major Philippine cities: Baguio, Cebu, Davao and Iloilo. In order to provide a more comprehensive grasp of likely future trends that (a) build on existing climate studies while (b) distilling city-specific socio economic information, as well as (c) drawing from experiences of local stakeholders, scenario building exercises were used to encourage “out of the box” thinking and generate plausible narratives that could be useful for strategic planning. Defined as a “process of carefully crafting a set of divergent stories about the future to sketch the realm of the possible as means to link the uncertainties of the future to the decisions that must be done today”, scenario building can help planners and decision makers understand and deal with the uncertainties that lie before them. At the very least, scenario exercises can serve as a “rehearsal” for communities, giving them an opportunity to anticipate possible futures, as well as points of indication, as they begin to unfold. Good scenarios are relevant, divergent, insightful, and plausible.